Following SpaceX's IPO, its stock price has fallen by nearly half from its peak
Sh0ny
6 августа 20262 min read
In short
The public market was quick to remind everyone that a high-profile IPO doesn’t eliminate questions about expenses and future profits. Against the backdrop of a sixfold increase in capital expenditures and AI investments, SpaceX’s stock has fallen below its IPO price, and the end of the lock-up period could bring more sellers into the market.
The public market didn’t stay caught up in the hype surrounding SpaceX for long: just seven weeks after the IPO, the stock had fallen nearly 50% from its high and dropped below the offering price of $135. Now the pressure may intensify—the first lock-up period ends on August 6.
Starting that day, employees and other insiders will be able to sell up to 911.5 million shares—that’s 20% of the locked-up shares. The mere authorization to sell does not mean that all shares will hit the market, but the potential supply is emerging at a time when prices have already fallen.
It is particularly telling that the trigger for the lock-up expiration was SpaceX’s first quarterly report following its IPO. And on August 5, the stock fell by more than 13% following a sharp increase in capital expenditures: in the second quarter, they rose sixfold to $18.4 billion.
A significant portion of this money went toward artificial intelligence. But for the stock market, large AI investments alone are not proof of success: it is more important for investors to understand what these expenses will turn into and when they will begin to yield results. In this case, the hype surrounding the technology has clashed with simple market mechanics—rising costs, falling prices, and the possibility of insider sales.
There are significant limitations here: the source does not disclose exactly what percentage of shares will actually be sold, does not explain the structure of AI expenses, and does not provide a forecast for the future performance of the securities. Therefore, attributing the entire decline solely to the lock-up period or solely to capital expenditures would be too bold—only the sequence of events is known.
If you were offered the chance to buy shares in a company that is simultaneously ramping up its AI spending and opening the door for insiders to sell, would you wait for the next earnings report or exit your position immediately? Source: All Articles / Artificial Intelligence / Habr